The National Intelligence Estimate includes input from the country’s 16 intelligence agencies and predicts US and its allies gains made during the past three years will likely be significantly eroded by 2017, even if DC leaves behind a few thousand troops and continues funding Afghanistan. 

The Taliban and other power brokers will become increasingly influential as the US winds down its involvement according to officials who have read the classified report or received briefings on its conclusions. The grim outlook is fueling a policy debate inside the Obama administration about the steps it should take over the next year as the U.S. military draws down its remaining troops.