Numerous coincidences presage latest Russian buildup on Ukraine border

Posted on: August 12th, 2014 by Will Rodriguez 13 Comments

Russia is going to invade Ukraine.  The only question is when.  Not that Russia needs it, but Russia has orchestrated a number of incidents designed to intimidate the US.

Reuters reported that Russian news cited an unnamed Russian Navy Main Staff spokesman as stating a supposedly U.S. Navy Virginia-class submarine, was detected in the Barents Sea on Aug. 7 by Northern Fleet forces.

Interfax news agency quoted the Russian navy spokesman as saying, “An anti-submarine attack group and an Ilyushin Il-38 anti-submarine aircraft were sent to the said area to search and track the sub”.  These forces “expelled” the submarine from Russian Federation “boundary waters” with “active maneuvers”.

On 18 July, a US RC-135 electronic surveillance was intercepted in international airspace by Russian fighters.  The US aircraft entered Swedish airspace to break contact with the Russian fighters.

The Washington Times reported on 7 August that Russian bombers and a reconnaissance aircraft have made 16 incursions into US airspace over the last 10 days.

Coincidentally, Russia has massed forces again on the Ukraine border and has marked some of its vehicles with “peacekeeping” markings.  This occurs coincidentally as Ukrainian forces are on the verge of finally securing Donetsk the largest rebel held city in eastern Ukraine.

Like I said, Russia didn’t need to intimidate the US into inaction over Ukraine.  A tepid US response has been characteristic since Russia invaded and later annexed Crimea.   Today, the President said in the midst of Russian shelling of Ukrainian territory,  that if Russia used a proposed humanitarian mission as an excuse for military action that it would be “unacceptable”.   Russia on the other hand has massed 45 thousand troops on the border and has announced it is sending an aid convoy.  One can imagine what that “aid convoy” will look like.

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  • LawyerHandle
  • LawyerHandle

    Here is some mo analysis on the MH-17 shoot down (which seems all but forgotten in the schizophrenic 24/7 drive by media).
    http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014/08/why-russia-shot-down-mh17-and-not-local.html

  • Update – 

    “Ukraine says may block Russian aid convoy”
    http://news.yahoo.com/russia-sends-280-trucks-humanitarian-aid-ukraine-051112038.html?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=*Situation%20Report&utm_campaign=AUG%2012%202014%20SITREP
    GOOD IDEA!  The Russians are sending over 200 large trucks with “humanitarian” aid.  Considering how they invaded Crimea and their propensity for subterfuge when invading countries (they used civilian aircraft to land the first waves in Afghanistan), the Ukrainians are wise to require the loads to be loaded onto Ukrainian trucks.

  • LawyerHandle

    CNN reporting that Ukraine destroyed a massive Russian convey heading into Ukraine overnight.

  • LawyerHandle
  • LawyerHandle That report has me scratching my head.  What capabilities do the Ukrainians have to interdict a convoy crossing from Russia into rebel controlled territory?  Granted.  I’m assuming the Russians crossed where they “owned” both sides of the border if for no other reason to avoid pictures on twitter.

  • YankeePapa

    .
    …Old intelligence saying, “Once is an incident… twice is coincidence… three times is enemy action…”
    .
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/14/russian-military-vehicles-enter-ukraine-aid-convoy-stops-short-border
    .
    -YP-

  • Michael_mike

    majrod LawyerHandle While entirely speculative truck mounted thermal imagery might have been provided. But considering that all that equipment arrived quite recently it may be the work of a reconnaissance team in rebel controlled area, informant; or more likely all of them.

    The map provided by the newspaper is not granular enough to have an exact picture. It clearly do not show where hundreds of Ukrainian forces were forced into Russian territory and captured.

  • Michael_mike

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-15/igor-the-terrible-strelkov-resigns-as-separatist-leader/5672274

    “Igor Strelkov, one of the leading separatist military leaders in eastern Ukraine has resigned, the separatists’ self-proclaimed Donetsk Republic said on its website.
    Mr Strelkov is one of two senior rebels battling Ukraine government troops to quit overnight, deepening the disarray in the pro-Moscow separatist movement that is being pushed back by a Ukrainian military offensive.”

    The Ukrainian strategy seems to work well right now but given the circumstances I would not cry victory. Fired by his unofficial commander in chief or did he “quit” to lead a new wave of attack?

  • Michael_mike

    LawyerHandle BBC got a video of some of the truck and they are quite empty. Except for water I don’t think that this food weigh enough to be considered as a “loaded truck”.

    I wonder if the original plan was to fill the rest with armed rebels that “inadvertently” sneaked in the convoy and told the red cross to keep their mouth shut, with a taste of a khttps://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCEQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FKalashnikov&ei=y93uU927MIyAygTCxIGABQ&usg=AFQjCNEkL2L-1ViZWPd9UiB4B8J2AkrTpQ&bvm=bv.73231344,d.aWw in their mouth.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28810622

  • steelhorse

    Russia is going to invade Ukraine another piece of putting the ussr back together he won’t stop there. The middle east is in the middle of a calphate with isis or what ever they call themselves today.Obama is playing golf almost more the tiger woods and Kerry is giving speeches on global warming can we survie another 2 yrs of these clowns

  • Michael_mike majrod LawyerHandle 
    I don’t doubt he Ukrainians could find out (they have our intel capabilities to help).  I doubt the Ukranians ability to interdict Russian armor well behind rebel lines.  They keep having aircraft shot out of the sky.

  • Michael_mike

    majrod Michael_mike LawyerHandleIt seems that the biggest problem they have is the lack of ordonance that can be dropped from high altitude. According to wikipedia the kab-500kr by being “TV guided” can dropped between 1,640ft and 16,400ft at best, well within sight of MANPAD. Which apparently leave the kab-500l, or a ~$550,000  kh-29T/L guided missile. It’s probably possible to include smaller guided bomb but they were not listed on wikipedia.

    Mig-29 also had been upgraded by other countries with some avionics from western countries, up to including a rockwell collins mission and communication computer. But even “gluing” a targeting pod compatible with paveway and sdb is probably more complicated than it seems, but it could be done with some machining, “wartime” software patch in a few weeks I suppose. Unlikely but not impossible. 

    What could be more likely is that we provide them training and equipment for a limited electronic warfare. But if they can’t attack from high altitude the gain is going to be marginal when it comes to control the border.

    Even with the long ranged Pion 2S7 203mm self-propelled artillery there is no way they can seal the border without controlling the ground.

    And without owning the airspace I don’t think this is possible to maintain border crossing at a minimal level. They might catch another convoy, or maybe never. Rebel leader claimed that they will have 1200 rebels trained in russia along with 30 tanks and 120 BMP and BTR. How much did they destroyed, 2% or 5% ?